FOSTER'S flagship beer, VB, does not have the vice-like grip on barbecues, parties and beer mats it enjoyed 20 years ago, and it has got some beverage analysts worried.
The beer of choice under the pergola and around the pool is increasingly Boag's, a beer made in Tasmania, owned by the Japanese and sold by the truckload in Victoria.
Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Ian Abbott believes Boag's, part of Lion Nathan's portfolio, is on the cusp of a fresh wave of popularity in VB's home territory.
He said that if the penetration continued, it could sink Foster's national market share and cost the beer and wine company $100 million in revenue and $40 million in pre-tax earnings. Mr Abbott said that after years of failing to crack the fiercely loyal Victorian market, Lion Nathan now had a brand that resonated with Victorians.
Placing a ''sell'' on Foster's stock, Mr Abbott said the timing was perfect for Lion Nathan as social trends showed consumers were increasingly willing to try new brands.
''If … Lion Nathan is successful in gaining traction in Victoria - current growth for Boag's is at least 30 per cent - then this would suggest there is a risk of a modest downwards trajectory to Foster's overall market share over the next few years,'' he said. Foster's market share in Victoria has traditionally been 85 to 95 per cent.
''If Lion Nathan were to direct most of its Boag's mainland Australia capacity - say 60 million litres - to the Victorian market, then in time we believe Boag's alone could capture 15 per cent of the Victorian beer market and Lion Nathan's aggregate position in Victoria would improve to 20-25 per cent market share.
''If Foster's share of the Victorian beer market were to fall from its current 85 per cent to 75 per cent, then, on our analysis, its share of the overall Australian beer market would fall from 50 per cent currently to around 48 per cent - which is the equivalent of a drag of around $100 million in revenue, or around $40 million in EBIT [earnings before interest and tax].''
A spokesman for Foster's said Victorians remained strong supporters, with its CUB beer brands taking nine of the top 10 positions in the state.

Housing starts surge most since 2001

Housing starts in the final three months of last year rose to the highest level since September 2001, offering a glimmer of hope for the nation's housing shortage.
Dwelling starts jumped 15.1 per cent in December quarter to 40,022 units, accelerating from a revised 11 per cent growth clip in the September quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
''It's fantastic news for the housing shortage,'' said ICAP economist Adam Carr. ''We desperately need more houses.''
''I actually do think it's a crisis. You are seeing evidence of it everywhere,'' he said.
A rise in housing starts was helped by low interest rates and the government stimulus for first home buyers enacted last year. Australia suffers from an estimated 200,000 home shortfall that is expected to worsen in coming years as the population grows and the economy continues to strengthen.
Other indicators are less positive, though, showing a 7.9 per cent slump - its steepest fall since June 2000.
Year-on-year, seasonally adjusted housing starts rose 26 per cent in the December quarter, the ABS said.
In the quarter, private sector houses rose 13.4 per cent, seasonally adjusted, while private sector multi-unit buildings jumped 18.9 per cent, ABS said.
Mr Carr said despite the two quarterly increases in dwelling starts, ''the question is how long will the uptick in residential investment last?''
''Lending has collapsed basically. I can't see a...reason for that.''
State-by-state
New South Wales dwellings starts rose by 16.5 per cent in the quarter, seasonally adjusted. In Victoria, they rose by 15.6 per cent.
In Queensland, starts increased 13.3 per cent, while in South Australia they rose 8.7 per cent, the ABS said.
Fellow mining state of Western Australia posted a 2.3 per cent increase in dwelling starts, while in Tasmania they barely budged, rising only 0.7 per cent in the quarter.
Based on what the ABS said were smaller, less reliable samples, dwellings in the Australian Capital Territory rose 33.7 per cent, and in the Northern Territory they rose 12.2 per cent.
JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said the improvement in dwelling starts was ''a positive for economic activity in the fourth quarter and beyond'' and will also help ease supply shortages in the housing market.
''With house prices continuing to rise, in stark contrast to those in developed markets overseas, housing has become an increasingly hot topic with RBA officials.''
''A lingering question raised by the US experience leading up to the financial crisis is where the central bank's responsibilities lie when faced with rapidly expanding asset prices.''
Mr Jarman said the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rates on house prices ''except at the margin'' with the ideal scenario being that they correct themselves over time through a flexible supply.
''Today's data should provide some relief on that front,'' he said.
Investors are rating the probability of another rise in the central bank's rates when its board next meets in April at a one-in-three chance.

Inside The Comcast-NBC Train Wreck: How The Curse Of The Moguls Struck Again

The Times business section leads with one of those stories that have been so often written about great media mergers: How did it happen, who whispered what to whom, who knew what when about the deal?
In the past, these stories were breathless if not orgiastic. This one, about , is notably subdued. Partly, this is because any business reporter could have written it in his or her sleep. It’s the same hoary story: that panting dog, Jimmy Lee, the banker at JPMorgan Chase, getting the parties together at the Allen & Co. conference; the scene in Sun Valley; the grumpy, but somehow heroic, CEOs facing off like old bulls. Blah blah. And partly, it is because there have been so many media mergers before—mythical combinations of distribution and content, many of them concocted in Sun Valley and almost none of them have worked out—that, well, even business reporters have to show some amount of soberness and skepticism.

Google takes aim at Microsoft with acquisition

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google Inc stepped up its assault on Microsoft Corp's productivity software business with the acquisition of a small start-up company that allows Microsoft users to edit and share their documents on the Web.
Google said on its company blog Friday that it has acquired San Francisco-based DocVerse. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
"With DocVerse, people can begin to experience some of the benefits of Web-based collaboration using the traditional Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint desktop applications," Google Product Manager Jonathan Rochelle said in the blog post.
The deal represents the latest move in the competition between Google, the world's No. 1 Internet search engine, and Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker.
Microsoft has boosted investment in its Bing search engine during the past year, while Google is developing a PC operating system dubbed Chrome OS that will compete with Microsoft Windows, the software used in the vast majority of the world's PCs.
Google is also trying to lure users to its Web-based productivity software, known as Google Docs, which competes with Microsoft's dominant Office software package.
In an interview with Reuters, Google's Rochelle said that DocVerse software makes it easier for users and businesses to move their existing desktop PC documents to the Internet "cloud," where the documents reside on the Web and can be accessed from any PC.
Google "fell in love with what they were doing to make that transition easier," Rochelle said of DocVerse.
Microsoft's business division, which makes Office, is the most profitable unit of the company, generating more than $12 billion in profit last fiscal year, more than half Microsoft's $20.4 billion overall profit.
Microsoft said in an emailed statement that Google's acquisition of DocVerse acknowledges that customers want to use and collaborate with Microsoft Office documents. "Furthermore, it reinforces that customers are embracing Microsoft's long-state strategy of software plus services, which combines rich client software with cloud services."
The DocVerse deal is Google's second acquisition announcement this week, and marks the company's fourth acquisition in less than four weeks.
San Francisco-based DocVerse was founded in 2007 by a pair of former Microsoft managers. The company has less than 20 employees, according to co-founder Shan Sinha and had raised nearly $1.5 million in funding prior to the Google deal

Google takes aim at Microsoft with acquisition

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google Inc stepped up its assault on Microsoft Corp's productivity software business with the acquisition of a small start-up company that allows Microsoft users to edit and share their documents on the Web.
Google said on its company blog Friday that it has acquired San Francisco-based DocVerse. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
"With DocVerse, people can begin to experience some of the benefits of Web-based collaboration using the traditional Microsoft Word, Excel and PowerPoint desktop applications," Google Product Manager Jonathan Rochelle said in the blog post.
The deal represents the latest move in the competition between Google, the world's No. 1 Internet search engine, and Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker.
Microsoft has boosted investment in its Bing search engine during the past year, while Google is developing a PC operating system dubbed Chrome OS that will compete with Microsoft Windows, the software used in the vast majority of the world's PCs.
Google is also trying to lure users to its Web-based productivity software, known as Google Docs, which competes with Microsoft's dominant Office software package.
In an interview with Reuters, Google's Rochelle said that DocVerse software makes it easier for users and businesses to move their existing desktop PC documents to the Internet "cloud," where the documents reside on the Web and can be accessed from any PC.
Google "fell in love with what they were doing to make that transition easier," Rochelle said of DocVerse.
Microsoft's business division, which makes Office, is the most profitable unit of the company, generating more than $12 billion in profit last fiscal year, more than half Microsoft's $20.4 billion overall profit.
Microsoft said in an emailed statement that Google's acquisition of DocVerse acknowledges that customers want to use and collaborate with Microsoft Office documents. "Furthermore, it reinforces that customers are embracing Microsoft's long-state strategy of software plus services, which combines rich client software with cloud services."
The DocVerse deal is Google's second acquisition announcement this week, and marks the company's fourth acquisition in less than four weeks.
San Francisco-based DocVerse was founded in 2007 by a pair of former Microsoft managers. The company has less than 20 employees, according to co-founder Shan Sinha and had raised nearly $1.5 million in funding prior to the Google deal.

Bumpy ride for corporate giving amid recession

(Reuters) - Giving by U.S. companies endured the worst recession in decades with mixed results as some pared back philanthropy in the face of tough times, others increased budgets and most predicted a steady 2010.
The economic downturn sparked some changes in giving priorities as well, with several companies placing more importance on basic needs such as fighting hunger and homelessness and others focusing more in their local communities.
"This is not just giving money anymore. It's solving problems. These are social issues that we're addressing," said Charles Moore, executive director of the nonprofit Committee Encouraging Corporate Philanthropy.
"Companies continue to examine their priorities. Very few are taking on new kinds of causes, and they are tending to reallocate the funds they do have," he said. "There's great expectation on the part of communities and (employees) on companies -- they expect more."
Reuters spoke to 10 companies whose philanthropic arms are ranked by the Foundation Center among the top U.S. foundations. Four said the dollar value of their giving increased in 2009, two said it remained steady, and four said it dropped.
Coca-Cola Co (KO.N), Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N), MetLife Inc (MET.N) and ExxonMobil (XOM.N) all said their giving rose at least a few percent -- from between $1 million and $10 million -- in 2009 from 2008, when the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered the global economic crisis.
"While we haven't dramatically changed the areas of giving, we have within those areas concentrated on basic human needs," said Margaret McKenna, president of the Walmart Foundation. "So we have done a great deal more with hunger relief and work force and basic access to education."
2010 GIVING SEEN STEADY
Verizon Communications (VZ.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) said their giving was steady last year.
"In terms of our giving, we're not stepping away from the plate," said Kerry Sullivan, Bank of America Foundation president. "We understand that these investments in the community are so important to the health of the community and therefore the health of our business."
Giving by General Electric Co (GE.N) fell about 5 percent in 2009, Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) said its philanthropy dropped about 10 percent and Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) and Alcoa (AA.N) said giving fell 30 percent last year.
"In response to the economic downturn, Caterpillar has taken steps to reduce costs in a variety of ways," said Caterpillar spokeswoman Bridget Young to explain the cut.
All the corporate foundations told Reuters their giving would likely remain steady or be a slightly higher this year. Most said they were still receiving high demand for help.
"The (MetLife) foundation's giving in 2010 will be up slightly over 2009," said its president and chief executive Dennis White. "We have shifted some resources in response to tough economic conditions."
"We are making more grants for food banks across the country and are providing increased support for housing counseling, including services to address the growing number of families affected by foreclosures," he said.
The tough economic times have also seen companies call on one of their strongest assets to boost their philanthropic work -- their employees.
Since 2007, the number of Alcoa employees taking part in the company's "Month of Service" initiative has more than doubled to 37 percent, while Wal-Mart employees gave more than 1.5 million volunteers hours last year, up from 1.25 million in 2008.
At Bank of America, employees spent more than 800,000 hours volunteering at nonprofit groups.
"It's a morale builder but it also augments our impact in the community," Sullivan said. "We really want to encourage employees to be more engaged."

Wall St Week Ahead: Bulls may extend rally from March 2009 lows

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bulls may get more room to run next week on the anniversary of the March 2009 lows -- if U.S. stock investors see more signs of stability after Friday's rally on smaller-than-expected job losses.
The catalysts could be February retail sales and March consumer sentiment.
On Friday, stocks jumped after U.S. Labor Department data showed employers cut fewer jobs than expected in February, which enhanced the perception that the job market may be on the verge of recovery. The Nasdaq marked its highest close in 18 months. Both the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at six-week highs.
Tuesday will mark the first anniversary of the stock market's slide to 12-year closing lows on March 9, 2009. Since then, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has climbed nearly 70 percent.
Much of the stock market's gain has been driven by stronger-than-expected economic data and earnings, which have pointed to a recovery.
But investors have been eager to see more robust signs of strength, especially in the nation's job market.
"Jobs are absolutely key," said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist for BlackRock Inc , one of the world's largest asset managers with about $3.35 trillion in assets under management.
"The manufacturing sector is improving. The U.S. consumer, at least in soft goods, is spending some money, inflation remains contained, housing is bottoming, and the next thing investors need to see is some job growth."
Unemployment near 10 percent has, in part, held back consumer spending, economists have said.
Next Friday brings the Commerce Department's monthly retail sales data for February along with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading on March consumer sentiment.
Besides that data, investors will have weekly jobless claims and the international trade deficit to mull over.
Investors will also keep their radar trained next week on Greece's debt problems, which could keep a lid on sentiment.
STRONG WEEK FOR STOCKS
The three major U.S. stock indexes finished the week on a strong note. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 2.3 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 3.1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 3.9 percent, its best weekly gain since October.
A year ago, the Dow and the S&P 500 were trading at 12-year lows, with uncertainty over a plan to salvage banks among the thorny issues hanging over the market.
"The black clouds of the day a year ago were the non-zero probability of depression and the concern about the potential nationalization of the banking system," Doll said.
"The dissipation of those two concerns has led to this massive rally. and now it's going to be grinded out with economic recovery and earnings improvement," he said.
REASSESSING THE SNOW JOB
For Friday's retail report, the consensus forecast, according to economists polled by Reuters, calls for a decline of 0.2 percent in February, compared with a gain of 0.5 percent in January. Ex-autos, the forecast is for a gain of 0.1 percent in February versus January's gain of 0.6 percent.
Analysts have said severe U.S. winter snowstorms last month may have had a negative impact on the data.
"The snowstorms could have probably done some damage to the February data of retail sales. So people will be looking at what damage that has done to consumer spending," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey.
This week, U.S. retailers reported stronger-than-expected same-store sales for February, despite the storms. Target Corp , one of the largest U.S. discount chains, said same-store sales rose 2.4 percent for the month.
Consumers "are not going to lead the U.S. economy, but they're not going to drag it down, like so many people thought," Doll said.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment reading for March is expected to come in at 73.6. That compares with a final February reading of 73.6.
Friday also will bring data on business inventories for January.
Just a few S&P 500 companies are expected to report results next week, including The Kroger Co , the largest U.S. grocery chain, and Brown-Forman Corp , the maker of Jack Daniel's whiskey, Finlandia vodkas and other well-known brands of alcoholic beverages.
More than 70 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates for the fourth quarter, well above the 61 percent in a typical quarter, according to Thomson Reuters, which began tracking data in 1994